What AI and Quicksand Have in Common

Why the AI revolution feels like quicksand and how to find solid ground.

"It was eerie," said my partner after returning from a hackathon. "I watched my teammates 'vibe code' their way through the project, doing in ten minutes what it took me ten years to learn." I could see his IT degree flashing before his eyes, hunted by the AI disrupting coding jobs.

AI threatens my writing career every day, too. I've escaped the slashes so far, but I keenly feel the jostle and wonder how long my freelance work will be available as a source of income. Employers are currently deciding how comfortable they are with a machine producing work, ever-pressured by the bottom line.

For some, the bottom line has already won. Layoffs sweep the globe because AI can do a 'good enough' job and is ever improving. As a result, the job market is increasing in difficulty, both due to competition and due to the AI tools HR companies are utilizing to make hiring 'easier.'

The sense of being totally out of control that job seekers must carry is crushing. Everyone feels the ground slipping from beneath us, with AI changing so quickly it feels impossible to remain competitive. The only thing that seems certain is uncertainty.

Regaining Control in a Paradigm Shift

I'm an anthropologist who studies paradigm shifts. We are in a strong techno-cultural shift that isn't going away (though you may wish it). Instead, I can help you regain a sense of control and orientation. In order to do so, there are a few things you need to know about how paradigm shifts work.

First, every paradigm shift requires two ingredients: a crisis (cultural motivation), and an opportunity (tools for action). Without a crisis, an opportunity will fail — think Google Glass. No opportunity, and the crisis will fizzle out — think Occupy Wall Street. With both present, the shift becomes a foregone conclusion, as with AI.

Second, every paradigm shift is accompanied by two side effects: cultural liquidation, and resistance. In a paradigm shift, cultural norms begin to fall apart. The opportunity has not yet found its place in culture, and the affected group is forced into an ongoing discourse about its adoption. This process I equate to quicksand: where the bedrock of culture was once solid it becomes, for a time, moldable.

As a result of this friction, at least some faction in culture will meet the paradigm shift with resistance. They will fight it tooth and nail, until the quicksand solidifies and the change is complete.

It is the quicksand period we need to discuss.

Quicksand and the Limitations of Progress

It is normal to worry about one's career, safety, and future during a paradigm shift. While society always survives these periods, the quicksand phase comes with enormous uncertainty and many endings.

When I researched the high-tech revolution, and conducted ethnography interviewing 100 elders in the USA, a theme emerged: Each generation has a limit to what they are willing to accept in advancement and progress. Younger generations scoff at their weary elders until they, too, finally reach their generational limit. Only outliers go beyond.

The Luddites burned down the sewing machine factories that made garment manufacture far more efficient, fearing for their livelihoods. Automobiles seemed insane to those who were used to trusting a living being to make decisions on the road. Similarly, autonomous vehicles were highlighted by many of those that I interviewed for my book as being the far-reaching limit to their tech adoption willingness.

Their fear may seem silly, but it’s backed by science.

Just as paradigm shifts begin with unformed culture, we subconsciously set our techno-social comfort level in early life when our brains are forming. Until age twenty-five, as the human brain is still developing, all is new and acceptable. The plasticity of the mind easily molds around innovation and revelation, accepting it as normal and, in some cases, always having been. After one's mid-twenties, the brain is complete, and such adaptation becomes increasingly difficult. The stretch a mind can make beyond its comfort zone is subjective and individual — and eventually stops without awareness and concerted effort (what is often termed a 'growth mindset'). May it be ten years or thirty, innovation eventually becomes a bridge too far.

AI is forcing Millennials to face their techno-social limitation, and the threat is real. It targets our livelihoods and freedoms. As Gary Epstein wrote in his book Tech Agnostic, tech leaders such as Peter Thiel and Elon Musk have two goals:

1. create an utopia via the industry they believe is a meritocracy (how could it not be, when, as a white man, the rise to the top has been easy), and

2. make more money. The less human labor involved in a business, the greater the profit margin. That AI is threatening white collar jobs is another wave in the ongoing pursuit to increase the bottom line.

What I know from my research is that another system, career, or use case always emerges after a paradigm shift. Society carries on. The awful part is the years of labor and education that are thrown away in the transition. My partner's decade of study, my ongoing research, the hard-won careers of every person whose work was already eliminated by some advancement over the years. It's easy to feel nimble when one's brain isn't yet formed, when one's career is not yet rooted. Beyond that, many feel 'too old' to 'start again.’

How to Leverage the 'Quicksand' Phase

The challenge to us all is to accept that the paradigm shift of AI is well underway and fight for equity within the new paradigm while it still forms. The greatest mistake one can make in a paradigm shift is to assume one can resist until it goes away. A shift like this never does — resistance only guarantees your voice will not be heard in the transition, that you will play no role in molding culture as it returns from quicksand to bedrock.

What forever lies in your control is your education. Read publications like this one, books on the intersection of tech and culture as mentioned in this article, and the news. Come to understand what AI as a term and technology really means, and how it is being treated sociopolitically. As Robert Heinlein says in his short story A Tenderfoot in Space, "One cannot form an opinion about that which he knows nothing about." Though we live in a society that lately feels it can opine upon anything, whether or not one has any knowledge, a true opinion and the power it carries comes from education. It is the pinnacle all action pivots upon.

Your sphere of influence over tech, itself, is in your use of the new tool (the opportunity). Every day, millions of people choose whether they will use AI — and how. Today, there are plenty of options, giving you the opportunity to make a values-aligned choice. If you're going to use it, use one that is the closest to ethically sound, pushing the cultural quicksand in that direction. Consider, too, the companies laying off their employees in favor of AI (such as Duolingo) — use of such tools is a vote in toward solidifying quicksand in the form of a world that favors tech over human innovation. Even engaging with a free tool emboldens the company, for investors look for daily user counts, and shareholders maneuver user input to improve AI models. Your use of any tech is not neutral. In an early paradigm, careful use matters even more.

Your secondary point of influence over the paradigm shift is via legislation. The United States just knocked down a proposed ten-year moratorium against AI regulation. It was a skin-of-our-teeth situation, and one that more individuals should have been involved in molding. State by state, regulations are being hammered out, and the quicksand is solidifying. Use what you learn as you research to get involved. Don't just call your representatives — WUPHF (as in the squeaky-wheel method developed in the show The Office). Get loud and stay loud, using every tool in your toolbox.

I don't believe we will all lose our livelihoods.

I do believe that AI feels scary because the paradigm is still in its 'quicksand' phase. Culture is being liquified, which presents an enormous opportunity to every user on the planet. No matter where you are, your influence is greater than in a solidified system. Use it. It is the only way forward.

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